forecast doubles calculator. Use our CSF tool to check returns for the Computer Straight Forecast. forecast doubles calculator

 
 Use our CSF tool to check returns for the Computer Straight Forecastforecast doubles calculator  For this, all you need to do is input the starting year, your revenue and the estimated sales growth percentage

Enter (or paste) your data delimited by hard returns. The double exponential smoothing formulas are given by: S 1 = x 1. , smoothed average extended for one count further the actual data. 5% based on the fee changes in the market. In short, expect the same trip taken this. The Exponential Smoothing is a technique for smoothing data of time series using an exponential window function. Choose the type of race and enter the Starting Prices of all runners in a race and then click the Calculate CSF button. A Double Reverse Forecast is utilising a 2 single Reverse Forecasts where the return of race 1 are used as the stake for race 2. 03/12)^ (12 x 1), and your ending balance. These can be permed, which is a good way to. To forecast the following value, the formula below is used. Enter the current population, number of years, and growth rate into the population growth calculator. A combination forecast aims to pick the first and second-placed finishers in an event in any order using three to six selections. 2 Pairs Rev FCast Doubles. The Free Bet Calculator is the world’s leading online sports bet calculator. Total Out of Order (OOO) Rooms = 5. when there are less than 3 finishers Fixed Odds Tricasts, Combination. currency you have staked. Enter your Stake : Each Way :Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing Calculator More about the Exponential Smoothing Forecasts with Trend Adjustment so you can get a better interpret the results that are provided by this calculator. The defaultFor example, when α=0. Bet type Single Double Treble Fourfold Fivefold Sixfold Sevenfold Eightfold Accumulator Trixie Yankee Canadian / Super Yankee Patent Lucky 15 Lucky 31 Lucky 63 Heinz Super Heinz Goliath Super Heinz with Singles Super. α = The value for the smoothing constant, between 0 and 1. Before we dive into the calculator magic, let’s ensure we’re on the same page about Four Fold Betting. 6 cm) for a girl. • The calculator is not 100% accurate. One of them is adding 2. Choose the type of race and enter the Starting Prices of all runners in a race and then click the Calculate CSF button. Clear up mathematic questions. The book value of equity (BVE) is calculated as the sum of the three ending balances. A forecast is a bet involving two greyhounds to finish first and second. We were both looking for a trip where we could push. Place: 10 divided by 5 is 2/1, so the Place bet pays £5 at a price of 2/1, returning £15 – £10 profit and your £5 stake returned. You can use these functions to predict future sales, inventory requirements, or consumer trends. Our tricast bet calculator is here to help you with your more complex bets. Multiple doubles bet calculator. 4-month doubling time (by comparison, Moore’s Law had a 2-year doubling period)[^footnote-correction]. how many horses/dogs involved in the race and the respective odds on them (among other things). The CSF formula scales this down drastically for big-priced. High limits. 127, x2=60, and. Website. 5-Year Avg. Work out potential winnings for any type of bet or check winning bets have been settled correctly with our bet calculator. You need at least two forecasts for a forecast double. In the Input Range, select the data for which you want to calculate the moving average (B2:B11 in this example) In the Interval option, enter 3 (as we are calculating a three-point moving average) In the Output range, enter the cell where you want the results. Based on this orange trend line, you can study the historical trend of sales over the year. Unveiling the Forecast Doubles Calculator. A double stakes odds calculator works out the returns of your winnings when placing a bet on two selections. We have illustrated a Double Reverse forecast below. As previously mentioned, the double bet calculator is easy to use and doesn’t require any previous experience or knowledge of betting. Hopefully you will have already been discouraged from placing forecasts, forecast doubles and forecast trebles! But for those of you still prepared to seek a win. Reversed forecast double A reversed forecast double is 4 bets, involving 2 reversed forecasts across 2 races. Combination. A. . known_y’s a known range of y values. The most important values to enter are the date/PSA value for each PSA measured over the last 12 months. Free Rational Expressions calculator - Add, subtract, multiply, divide and cancel rational expressions step-by-step. Note: Reasonable alpha values are 0. In the naive method, the forecast of all future values is equal to the last observed value. Use of FORECAST. Select the data that contains timeline series and values. 7 then type "6. You can use these functions to predict future sales, inventory requirements, or consumer trends. 87sec. 3623) and (gamma = 1. 5 times the standard rate for overtime and sometimes even more. It consists of two EWMAs: one for the smoothed values of xt, and another for its slope. . A “double” that requires you to pick the first two greyhounds home in two separate races. It is a powerful forecasting method that may be used as an alternative to the popular Box-Jenkins ARIMA family of methods. Step 2: Select “Exponential Smoothing” and then click “OK. Forecast Doubles & Trebles. What is a conjecture? Give and example for it A conjecture is an educated guess that is based on known information. An alternative representation is the component form. Deductions resulting from late scratchings. If you want to smooth the edges, it simply adds first and last values to the calculation, as needed. 1-2 could finish either way round, 1-2 or 2-1Greyhound Forecast Betting. The 3-month moving average is calculated by taking the average of the current and past two months’ revenues. This is known as Moore’s law. Seasonal demand has a pattern that repeats. It was under 10,000 in 1971. Reverse Forecast Double. 7621 m? 1. According to NerdWallet's Travel Price Index, the overall cost of travel is down 2% from the same month in 2022 and up 10% compared with October 2019. Using your A at 3/1 and B at 10/1, the two straight forecasts. where, x: the value whose corresponding value (y) we must predict. Ideally, a hotel would aim for the opposite, with a higher occupancy rate and a lower vacancy rate. Tricasts. Add one to the price of the runner-up and multiply by. Depreciation Formula. Calculators . Expiry: 30 days. Determine the price of a given basket of goods or check price indexes at the given years. For our example, the effective annual yield for Bond A is (1 + 5% / 2) 2 − 1 = 5. A. LINEAR Function. (1) First, you need to have a sample data, numerical data from a process you want to forecast. tsa. R everse forecast bets are traditionally used on horse racing. . Use this odds calculator for all types of bet, including each way bets. Sales forecasts are typically created using past performance data. It must be an integer greater than or equal to zero. As shown in cell F7 of the spreadsheet, the function to calculate the forecast y-value at x=7 is: =FORECAST ( 7, G2:G7, F2:F7 ) Follow the steps shown below to make a graph and then draw a straight line that fits your data. Double. Vacancies of bookmaker offices BalashikhaFinal step in our look at short term time series forecastingThe best forecasts for sport in contact. If your horse finished in places 2nd. Choose the easiest variable to eliminate. Microsoft forecast Intelligent Cloud revenue of $21. Bet Calculator Description. - Straight Forecast Doubles - Reverse Forecast Doubles - Straight Forecast TreblesExponential smoothing is a time series forecasting method for univariate data that can be extended to support data with a systematic trend or seasonal component. 5. Region bookmaker office. Straight Forecast Trebles. Our calculator supports the straight-line method of forecasting sales. A forecast is usually returned is to a one-unit stake. Printable multiplication worksheets and multiplication timed tests for every grade These basic math fact multiplication worksheets are similar to theWhat is the forecast for this year using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha(1) = 0. straight forecast doubles bet calculator. A reverse forecast allows you to select two greyhounds to finish first and second in any order. 2 zettabytes in 2020. Where niave forecasting places 100% weight on the most recent observation and moving averages place equal weight on k values, exponential smoothing allows for weighted averages where greater weight can be placed on recent. Go to Data > Forecast > Forecast Sheet. This is done by subtracting the initial population (or P1) from the current population, or the population at the end. 起動時間:電源ボタン押下後約12秒で操作可能!. i7 +SSDですのでサクサク動作します。. Earnings on bookmaker offices courses. Forecast Doubles. A small fraction of earthquakes are followed by a larger earthquake, in which case the first. Enter your stake per bet. Number of Races. 00. Syntax: How to Calculate a Double Exponential Smoothing Column FORECAST_DOUBLEXP(display, infield, interval, npredict, npoint1, npoint2) where: display. Enter your stake, bet type, odds (fractional or decimal), place terms (if applicable) and then hit the calculate button. The Greyhound Betting Calculator features: 1. 1 billion to $21. The first year you earn $100. For each-way bets select the tick box on the right of the page if your selection has. The forecast values for the next k time periods is given by : Ŷ t+1 = L t + kT tYears Since Purchase. Forecast using the linear trendline. Here is how we can calculate the final value:I bonds can be purchased electronically starting at $25. Determine the area of a regular hexagon which has side 8mm - What is the area of a hexagon with side 0. Bootstrapping forecasts What happens if you wish to forecast from some origin, usually the last data point, and no actual observations are available? In this situation we have to modify the formula to become: $$ S_{t+1} = alpha y_{orgin} + (1-alpha) S_t , , $$ where (y_{origin}) remains constant. One of the potentially profitable forecast bets in sports betting is the combination forecast. 4 – $ 0. Your selection must come either first or second in any order to win in the selected. Choose a chart type (we recommend using a line or column chart). 2. Your current age. It will calculate or predict a future value using existing values. Picking out a straight forecast or even a reverse forecast with two selections is tough. find average of x1, x2, x3, x4. 3. A trixie bet calculator is used to calculate stake, returns and profit that are likely to be earned from a Tricast bet. A linked series of win singles where all the return from the first selection is automatically staked on the second selection as a win single and so on until all selections have won, thus giving a return, or until one selection loses in which case the whole bet is lost. Learn how to input various parameters and understand the calculated results, ensuring. Weastmead Carl went to the head of the betting for the Romford Puppy Cup with victory in Friday night's semi final. The existing values are known x-values and y-values, and the future value is predicted by using linear regression. If you have won on your double then you’ll want to calculate your winnings so you know what to expect back from the bookies. The CAGR calculator estimates the compound annual growth rate of your investment over a specified period. Also shown are the numbers of bets for some of the well know bet types offered and promoted by bookmakers like Lucky 15, 31, 63, yankee, canadian, heinz, goliath. A forecast is a bet involving two greyhounds to finish first and second in the correct order. A sales forecast is an in-depth report that predicts what a salesperson, team, or company will sell weekly, monthly, quarterly, or annually. When a Double attack occurs, the character attacks twice–the second attack occurs after the enemy’s attack (unless they can’t attack). Simple Moving Average Formula. The calculated factor = 370/395 = 0. , amount of lag), the simple exponential smoothing (SES) forecast is somewhat superior to the simple moving average (SMA) forecast because it places relatively more weight on the most recent. All selections must win for the bet to generate a return, but the payoff can. For example: If the forecast return is 11. A Double bet consists of 2 selections taking part in different events. tipobet yeni adres. The first forecast should begin in March, which is cell C6. This means your hotel had a vacancy rate of 70% and an occupancy rate of 30%. Is the number of predictions for FORECAST to calculate. 2016 (historical results) or forecasted year-end December 31, 2017 (forecast results). Moore's law is an observation and projection of a historical trend. That is why the values represent the actual values except for some randomness. the price of the winner. Exponential smoothing is a forecasting method for univariate time series data. Typically, it will be a time series, in nature. How do you calculate straight forecast doubles? To work out how many straight forecast doubles are in a given number of races, use this simple formula: (number of races. The future value is a y-value for a given x-value. Web a reverse forecast is classed as a single combined bet and is a bet on two selections to finish in the first two positions in any order. Along the top ribbon in Excel, go to the Data tab and click on Data Analysis. But when non-runners form part of a multiple bet such as a forecast or tricast, the rules on what happens next vary from one bookmaker to another. Holt & Winters proposed different exponential smoothing models (simple, double, and triple) that can also understand & project a trend or a seasonality. Bet Calculator. For example, if you typed your data into cells E1 to E10, type “E1:E10” into that box. If that mortgage went up in lockstep with the Bank of Canada's hikes, by last week, that loan was sitting at 5. Type the numbers in the boxes and then click "Calculate Salary Table". Follow the steps below to use this feature. 509 m . Delve into the mechanics of the Bet Calculator Patent. Book Value of Equity (BVE) = Common Stock and APIC + Retained Earnings + Other Comprehensive Income (OCI) In Year 1, the “Total Equity” amounts to $324mm, but this balance—i. Your outlay would be £40, and with typically conservative odds a clean sweep across. 2 Pairs Rev FCast Trebles. Pound CR, Partin AW, Eisenberger MA, Chan DW, Pearson JD, Walsh PC. Before we delve into the forecast doubles calculator, let’s take a moment to understand the fundamentals of greyhound racing. Create two columns: 3-month moving average and 5-month moving average. Considering the retention rate is the inverse of the churn rate, it can also be calculated by subtracting the churn rate from one. Zero indicates that you do not want predictions, and is only. Where, A is the value of the home after n years, P is the purchase amount, R is the annual percentage rate of appreciation, n is the number of years after the purchase. 1. This means you have to pick the 1st and 2nd in two races. To calculate double integrals, use the general form of double integration which is ∫ ∫ f (x,y) dx dy, where f (x,y) is the function being integrated and x and y are the variables of integration. – Keep in mind, simple exponential smoothing works best for short-term. In the XLMiner Analysis Toolpak pane, select Exponential Smoothing, and it will auto-populate the Input Range field. An Accumulator Calculator. The following table shows how there are 4 possible winning outcomes to this bet. The calculator will display the new population after the number of years entered. A trixie bet calculator is used to calculate stake, returns and profit that are likely to be earned from a Tricast bet. You can. periods(#) specifies the number of periods after begin() to forecast. ETS because both functions use the same algorithm to detect seasonality. Find out how it works here. To forecast the following value, the formula below is used. = Lt –1 + Tt –1. Given the following demand data and the parameters (highlighted), calculate FIT for periods 1 to 9 by using the double exponential smoothing method. Therefore, the forecast is the level L at time step t. Betting calculators are generally very simple to use and all you need to do is enter the odds together with your stake for your potential winnings to be shown. It is typical for employers to increase an employee’s salary at least 3%. 17. The formula requires the starting point (a specific year or month in the past) in the consumer price index for a specific good or service and the current. Application error: a client-side exception has occurred (see the browser console for more information). In the Create Forecast Worksheet box, pick either a line chart or a column chart for the visual representation of the forecast. To explain why, just think of betting £5 on the outcome of eight Premier League fixtures. This easy-to-use tool lets you see in a flash how much you could win if your prediction comes true. Bookmaker offices in Tyumen 1xbet. 3 = $70. If you back a single horse in a win-only or each-way market that is then declared a non-runner, the bet will be declared void and you’ll get your stake back. 8 billion in 2025. Solver was used to identify the values of α and β that minimized MAD and MSE for each problem. With four selections at say 4/1 and a Lucky 15 stake of £1 (total £15) your return would bring in £1,409. 1. Find below some useful betting charts and tables showing the number of selections for various permutations. Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets. Enter the “Notional Bet”, which is the amount in dollars that you wish to wager on the reverse bet at a particular sports betting site. 3) How to use Excel Solver to find α2. Excel FORECAST. Enter your stake, bet type, odds (fractional or decimal), place terms (if applicable) and then hit the calculate button. Step 3: Enter a damping factor. 20 runners = 380 possible forecasts = a 379/1 chance, etc. With reverse forecast doubles, you make two or more selections in two or more events. A treble bet combines three separate wagers into one bet, we explain treble bets in detail here. Wolfram Interactive algebra calculators for solving equations, polynomials, rational functions, simplification, vectors, matrices, linear algebra, quaternions,The bacteria’s population reached double its original size in about ???2. If you have a 100-person team, that translates to: 167 deals per month/100 reps = 2 deals per month. It must be an integer greater than or equal to zero. Forecast, as its name suggests, is used to forecast the future value of a data point, but it can also be used to interpolate a value. Then our parlay calculator will simply reveal what kinds of payouts you’ll get should luck be on your side. Now, let’s turn our attention to the star of the show—the Forecast Doubles. The primary idea behind double exponential smoothing is to introduce a term to take into account the possibility of a series showing some form of trend. . Single. NEC LaVie LS150/M i7 2630QM/8GB/Win10 美品 値引き可能. 全体的に綺麗ですが、キーボードは保護フィルム貼ったままの状態です。. Go to the website at BoyleSports and select Dogs from the list of sports. Ap questions class 10 - Free PDF download of Important Questions for Class 10 Maths Chapter 5 Arithmetic Progressions solved by Expert Teachers as per NCERTThe number of years it takes for a country's economy to double in size is equal to 70 divided by the growth rate, in percent. Math understanding that gets you. Average Method: F t + 1 = Y ¯. If the first observation is numbered one, then level and trend estimates at time zero must be initialized in order to proceed. 3500 divided by 50 results in 70. A paper published in the. Both reversed forecasts must be successful for the bet to win, with returns from the first reinvested on the second. The 3-month moving average is calculated by taking the average of the current and past two months’ revenues. Select your desired bets by clicking the odds button at the available price. Note 1: Brave-type weapons (e. Being able to calculate how much a bet returns for any given stake is one of the basics of betting and our Bet Calculator simplifies this process for bettors. The web hosting services market is forecast to reach $77. The bets include 4 singles, 6 doubles, 4 trebles, and 1 fourfold. How to Calculate Moving Averages. The amount of unit bets are usually very high depending on the type of forecast multiple and the amount of races, even forecast doubles on 6 races will cost 15 bets. Quick Bet Calculators. How Many Bets In A Lucky 15 Forecast? A lucky 15 forecast is a type of combination forecast, in which the player chooses 4 racers and puts a selection of bets on them to try and cover a broad range of outcomes with short odds. Our tricast bet calculator is here to help you with your more complex bets. B 1 = x 1-x 0. Email *. Find below some useful betting charts and tables showing the number of selections for various permutations. 35 billion for its fiscal fourth quarter, driven by strong growth in its Azure platform. and the exponentially smoothed and exponentially smoothed trend. B 1 = x 1-x 0. View All 5 Bet365 Codes. 3 Dogs Rev FCast Trebles. Time series methods: Basic time series methods. For example, if the company’s revenue doubles from $1 million to $2 million, it has experienced 2% revenue growth. Moore's law. Romford Puppy Cup Draw. Selecting your favourite bet from the list below, and then bookmarking it, will allow you to return directly to your preferred bet calculator with a single click. Where niave forecasting places 100% weight on the most recent observation and moving averages place equal weight on k values, exponential smoothing allows for weighted averages where greater weight can be placed on recent. How to calculate treble bets. How To Use Betting Calculator: Pick your chosen bet type (whether that be a single, double, yankee etc) and enter in your stake size (for example ’10’ if your stake was £/€10). How many bets in a Union Jack Patent? A Union Jack is a permed Patent bet comprising eight Patent bets placed using nine selections in combinations matching a grid of the selections overlaying a Union Jack flag: 1-2-3, 1-4-7, 1-5-9. For example, if an economy grows at 1% per year, it will take 70 / 1. From then on you won’t need to select the. Also, you can indicate if the data periods are months or not, and you optionally can write your own custom names for the time periods in the form below: Data. A combination forecast bet allows you to make more than the standard two selections and combine them, hence the name, the combination forecast bet. Hotel's Occupancy Percentage = 207 / (215 - 5) *100. forecast produces forecasts for all periods on or after begin() in the dataset. A forecast is a bet involving two greyhounds to finish first and second in the correct order. A 6 runner race would give 15 doubles in 6 selections, so it's 15 x 2 = 30. Enter your stake, bet type, odds (fractional or decimal), place terms (if applicable) and then hit the. 50 – including a win bonus of 10%. These are the main types of forecast bets. The calculator below plots CMA for given time series and period (even value). In financial modeling, the FORECAST function can be useful in calculating the statistical value of a forecast made. For example, if we know the past earnings and expenses, we can forecast the future. The actual profit might be slightly different compared to the results shown in the calculator. NEC LaVie LS150/M i7 2630QM/8GB/Win10 美品 値引き可能. 1 day ago · According to a forecast by Vantage Market Research, the global fintech industry could grow at an average annualized rate of 19. But the next year you earn $110, to reflect your. If you already know the final population and want to. Iddaa banko ne demek. Here’s the equation: Tt+1 = β (Lt+1- Lt) + (1-β) Tt. Simply put: instead of forecasting once for the 60 months ahead, we forecast 60 times for the upcoming month, using latest observations. Go to Data Tab > Analysis > Data Analysis. 00 & 1. Number of Races. If we are given information about the quantity and formation of section 1, 2 and64,000 calls/year = 256 calls per day. This is known as Holt’s exponential smoothing. While the Forecast Function is useful for estimating missing values in data, combining it with the OFFSET and MATCH. Click the "Calculate" button. However, if it grows at 2 percent per year, it will take only 35. A tricast bet is already a complex bet in and of itself so when you throw in some more improbable odds, things can get a bit messy. Learn more. In this tutorial, you will discover the exponential smoothing. (3) Standing at the time period right after. 2 Pairs Rev FCast Trebles. The Double Bet Calculator allows you to calculate the stake, return and profit for Doubles, permed from up to 20. As each double e. SEASONALITY function. An unbeatable betting experience. This easy-to-use tool lets you see in a flash how much you could win if your prediction comes true. • Transaction fees may vary by +/- 0. On the Data tab, in the Forecast group, click Forecast Sheet. In naive forecasting, the forecast for time t is the data value at time t -1. This video shows1) How to calculate exponential smoothing forecasts in Excel2) How to calculate MAD, MSE, and MAPE in Excel. Six types of forecast bet are covered. The formula to calculate the retention rate of a company is as follows. This means that a £10 reverse forecast will cost you £20 in total, much like a £10 each way bet would. Using a dual forecast calculator is the easiest and most accurate way to determine the. Don't forget that this is the minimum figure, as laid down by law. S traight forecast bets are most commonly associated with horse. Current 1-Year EPS. There is an option to do a single, double and treble forecast or reverse forecast too. Enter (or paste) your data delimited by hard returns. Then, you start dividing 2000 by 1000. If you win on a Straight Forecast your return will be based on a mathematical equation which takes into consideration a multitude of factors i. 5% and 8. To get data at any temperature between 0 and 100 C, we’ll have to interpolate. Bookmaker offices from 3 rubles. The formula can be used as a prediction tool to forecast future performance. The Bet365 bonus code to get £30 in free bets is SPRT365. 3) How to use Excel Solver to find αExponential smoothing is one of the more popular smoothing techniques due to its flexibility, ease in calculation and good performance. Get the latest Verizon stock price (NYSE: VZ) and detailed information including news, historical charts, stock analyst insights and more. For example, let’s say you use the historical forecasting method and predict sales for one month of $500,000 based on the previous month’s sales of 500 units at $1,000. If the match then goes into extra time and penalties, the double chance bet will not cover it. Compare how different outcomes on each selection might affect your profits before placing your bet. 281. Loan money of a casino. Range of sales history to use in calculating growth factor (processing option 2a) = 3 in this example. Ask mathematicians questions. This calculator can help with planning the financial aspects of your retirement, such as providing an idea where you stand in terms of retirement savings, how much to save to reach your target, and what your retrievals will look like in retirement. 39. Reverse Forecast Double. The CSF formula scales this down drastically for big-priced. 2. This wager requires 2 winners to guarantee a return. 39 = 543. We’re releasing an analysis showing that since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3. Plugging these numbers into the vacancy rate formula: 35 multiplied by 100 equals 3500. (Source: Big Idea) The number of transistors that fit into a microprocessor reached over 10 billion in 2017. The objective is to predict which dog will finish first in each race and place bets accordingly. Once you have your account set up and ready to go, then you are ready to start placing reverse forecast bets and other wagers. Additional Contribution. For a given average age (i. High limits. Treble bet returns calculator - Use this calculator to work out winnings for the more risky treble. However, even if you correct that, Holt only includes the trend component and your forecasts will not carry the seasonal effects. How does a Reverse Forecast bet work? The Reverse Forecast is a bet on two runners finishing 1st and 2nd in one half and the reverse in the second half of the bet. Bedrooms. Homework Support Solutions. For t>1, s t = αx t + (1 – α)(s t-1. For simple exponential smoothing, the only component included is the level, (ell_t). Also shown are the numbers of bets for some of the well know bet types offered and promoted by bookmakers like Lucky 15, 31, 63, yankee, canadian, heinz, goliath. Also shown are the numbers of bets for some of the well know bet types offered and promoted by bookmakers like Lucky 15, 31, 63, yankee, canadian, heinz, goliath. 2, if the forecast for last year was 310, the forecast for two years ago was 430, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was -150?. 1: 2: 3: 4:Sales Forecasting. You don't need to remember how to find an effective annual yield. A straight forecast involves predicting the first and second finishers in an event in the correct order. Plugging these numbers into the vacancy rate formula: 35 multiplied by 100 equals 3500. t is the amount of time it takes the population to doubleCompound Annual Growth Rate - CAGR: The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is the mean annual growth rate of an investment over a specified period of time longer than one year. This slope component is itself updated through exponential smoothing.